First-innings win-probability.

Two ways in, pick yours.

The signal, in full.

Pass the match state; receive a complete, model-backed read.

1. 01

   Setting-team win probability

   The chance the team batting first goes on to win, from their current first-innings state and match context, honestly scored at AUC 0.76.

   setting_team_win_prob

2. 02

   Venue-aware

   A venue batting-index feature tells the model whether this is a high-scoring ground or a bowler's pitch, worth six AUC points over match-state alone.

   venue_bat_index

3. 03

   Projected-total context

   A naive projected total is returned alongside as a reference point for the setting side.

   projected_total_naive

Modeled on thousands of first innings.

Fit on a large archive of completed professional matches, then validated on unseen games. The intelligence lives in the model.

• Real first-innings states

  Trained on the first innings of thousands of completed T20 matches, labelled with the eventual result.

  trained

• Venue batting-index

  A per-venue scoring index, the single biggest lift, from 0.70 to 0.76 AUC.

  feature-engineered

• Team-strength Elo

  Optional Elo inputs sharpen the read when team quality is known.

  proprietary methodology

• Out-of-sample AUC 0.76

  Measured on held-out matches, an honest figure for a genuinely hard problem.

  out-of-sample

What comes back.

{
  "setting_team_win_prob": 0.58,
  "projected_total_naive": 176,
  "venue_bat_index": 1.09
}

Use cases.